Springboks Level Greatest Rivalry Series, But the 2027 World Cup Draw Overshadows It All
South Africa beat the All Blacks 33-26 at DHL Stadium in Cape Town on 29 August to level the Greatest Rivalry series at one game apiece.
The Springboks delivered a relentless physical display after losing the first Test, outscoring New Zealand three tries to four but controlling the contest through set-piece dominance and a 18-point haul from fullback Cheslin Kolbe, who kicked four penalties and three conversions.
It was head coach Dave Rennie's first defeat in nine matches in charge of the All Blacks, according to rugbyisthegame.com.
How South Africa Seized Control
The Springboks set the tone within two minutes. Jesse Kriel crossed off a Cobus Reinach pass after an opening maul pinned the All Blacks deep.
Damian de Allende then powered through three defenders, and captain Siya Kolisi went over from a pick-and-go just before half-time. South Africa led 24-14 at the break.
Kolbe added three penalties in the second half to push the margin to 19 points by the 62nd minute. Ardie Savea, who had warned all week that the Springboks were a wounded beast, later acknowledged that falling so far behind so early made recovery nearly impossible.
All Blacks Fight Back, Fall Short
New Zealand did not fold. Will Jordan set up Cam Roigard for an early equaliser, Damian McKenzie added a second before half-time, and Leroy Carter and Savea scored in the final quarter to cut the deficit to seven points.
Carter's try came after a 14-phase passage of play, only for Eben Etzebeth to steal a crucial lineout at the 60-minute mark that snuffed out New Zealand's best opportunity to get closer sooner.
Rennie said afterwards that the margins between the sides were very small. Lood de Jager was sin-binned in the 79th minute for a head-on-head collision with Carter, but Andre Esterhuizen secured a turnover on the final play to preserve the result.
[The All Blacks forward pack had been reshuffled heading into Cape Town](INTERNAL LINK: "pack reshuffled heading" -> "All Blacks forward pack reshuffled for Cape Town Test against Springboks"), and the match showed how costly any disruption to structure can be against a team of this physicality.
The World Cup Draw Problem
The series is one match away from a decider, and the rugby has been exceptional across 160 minutes of action. Gregor Paul, writing in the New Zealand Herald from Cape Town, argues that this quality is exactly what makes the 2027 Rugby World Cup draw so damaging.
Under the current draw, the All Blacks and Springboks are set to meet in the quarter-finals, eliminating one of the world's two best teams weeks before the final.
Paul draws a direct parallel to 2023, when France, Ireland, South Africa and New Zealand all collided at the quarter-final stage, producing memorable matches but draining the tournament of its potential.
At this year's FIFA World Cup, the top four seeds met only at the semi-final and final stage, with Spain and Argentina contesting the final as the world's top two ranked nations.
Rugby has repeatedly failed to protect its top seeds through the draw process, and with the All Blacks and Springboks again demonstrating a gap over the rest of the world, [the World Cup format faces the same criticism it has drawn before](INTERNAL LINK: "same criticism before" -> "Fourth Test in Baltimore Muddies What an All Blacks Series Win Would Mean").
The third and deciding Test of the Greatest Rivalry series is still to come.